Neue Wehretat-Eckwerte: Ihre Wirkung auf die Rüstung

Das für die Bundeswehr anvisierte Fähigkeitsprofil einer Rahmenarmee bis 2032 – Grafik: Bundesverteidigungsministerium / Medienfreigabe

Seit Ende März liegen die vom Finanzministerium erstellten Wehretat-Eckwerte von 2022 bis 2025 vor. Professor Jürgen Schnell – Generalleutnant a. D. und Leiter des Fachbereichs Militärokonomie der Bundeswehr-Uni München bietet mit drei Modellrechnungen einen Ausblick zu Effekten dieser Planungen auf die Bundeswehr Rüstung.

Eckwerte für den Wehretat laut Regierungsentwurf in Mrd. Euro – gerundete Werte:

                           ( 2021 )                2022               2023                2024             2025

                            ( 46,9 )                49,3                46,3                  46,2              45,7

I. Modellrechnung Wehretat-Eckwerte ( in Mrd Euro, ca.-Werte ):

Die erste Modellrechnung zeigt, wie sich ein Wehretat nach den Regierungseckwerten zum postulierten Ziel der Bundesregierung verhält, die Militärausgaben bis 2030 auf 2 Prozent des BIP anzuheben. Damit soll die „Rahmennationenarmee“ des neuen Fähigkeitsprofils nach den NATO-Zielen aufgebaut und ab den 2030er Jahren unterhalten werden. Die ergänzenden Annahmen dazu: Die nominale Wachstumsrate des BIP beträgt bis Ende der Dekade 2,5 Prozent (Wachstum wie 2010 bis 2019. Der Einbruch durch die Corona-Pandemie wird danach durch verstärktes „Erholungswachstum“ geglättete wie nach der Finanzkrise 2008 bis 2010). Circa 7 Milliarden kommen aus anderen Einzelplänen wie jenem des Auswärtigen für die NATO-Ziele hinzu (Bisher laut Schnell sind es vier bis sechs Milliarden Euro).

BIP in 2019 ca. 3.450 Mrd; in 2030 bei nominal 2,5 % ca. 4.500 Mrd; 2 % davon ca. 90 Mrd Soll Verteidigungshaushalt in 2030 ca. 83 Mrd → erforderlich stetige Erhöhung: ca. 6,5 %

                                                                      ( 2021 )        2022      2023       2024       2025    Wehretat Soll ( + 6,5 % )                              ( 46,9 )          49,9       53,2        56,6        60,3  Wehretat nach Eckwerten                           ( 46,9 )          49,3       46,3        46,2        45,7

Fehl bzw. erforderliche Erhöhung                   0               0,6         6,9        10,4        14,6    

Im Ergebnis beträgt der Finanzbedarf von 2022 bis 2025 an die 220 Mrd. Euro, liegt aber nur bei 188 Mrd. Euro. Das ergibt ein Fehl von 32 Milliarden Euro bzw. eine Unterfinanzierung des Verteidigungsetats von etwa 15 Prozent. Weiterlesen

Franco-British Combined Joint Expeditionary Force: structure, aims and pitfalls

Soldiers of the First Battalion the Duke of Lancaster's Regiment from 4th Mechanized Brigade, are pictured training with the 2nd Regiment the French Foreign Legion.

British and French soldiers line of attack training during exercise Border Storm, Otterburn ranges in Northumberland – photo:  © Crown Copyright 2014 / photographer: Sgt Brian Gamble

Nearly five years delayed France and the UK announced full operational capability of their Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF) of 10.000 soldiers. An aim which was originally foreseen for 2016 according to the CJEF user guide. The CJEF based on the Lancaster House agreements from 2010 between London and Paris for an enhanced defence cooperation between both countries. CJEFs defining characteristic is that of a first-entry force for a bilateral or multilateral coalition of the willing. A force which intervenes first into a theatre, dedicated to enable the secure in flow of other forces and logistics to continue an operation. The leitmotiv for its buildup was to create a tool for intervention in the European rimlands if the US doesn’t want to act. 

The CJEF: antithesis to French-German defence cooperation

CJEF is designed as an ad-hoc force on NATOs lead nation concept (70 % of staff, material etc. from the nation in lead, 30% from the partner) and works basically as follows: In case of an international crises the French (Conseil Restreint) and British (National Security Council) planning staffs on the political level will seek common ground. If they activated CJEF, the countries defence staffs will decide on the role of the lead nation (operation commander, C2 structure etc.). The army in lead will establish and host a „Crises Contingency Team“ which develops to an „Operations and Planning Group“ with ten to forty staffers, co-chaired by the commanders of the two national contingents. They consolidate and transform the political into operational aims for a Combined Joint Taskforce Headquarter in the theatre under the lead nation. Weiterlesen

US Army Europe-Africa headquartered in Germany

The US Army Europe headquarters building at Wiesbaden, Germany - Foto: U.S. Army photo by Paul Hughes

The US Army Europe headquarter building at Wiesbaden, Germany – Foto: U.S. Army photo by Paul Hughes

Some further information on the upcoming US Army EuropeAfrica Command: Its headquarter will be in Germany an Army spokesperson stated to the author. A detail which was so far a bit uncertain from the previous reporting – e. g. Defense News. That means quite likely Wiesbaden where US Army Europe Command is already established. An obvious choice as its commanding general Christopher Cavoli recently received its fourth star an was announced as the leader of the new combined command. But in the context of the US troop withdrawl from Germany – labeled by US president Donald Trump as „punishment“ of a recusant ally – such details are of interest. The aims of the army with that merger: „This consolidation improves the Army’s ability to meet African and European strategic and operational objectives outlined in the National Defense Strategy while improving global response and optimizing the command, control and rapid transition to large-scale ground combat operations of land forces if needed.“  Especially the finally mentioned operative interest shows the focus on maneuver warfare aka the European scenario.